Global Business Outlook 2026

Our annual Global Business Outlook 2026 brought a full room of GABA Northern California – German American Business Association members and guests together at SAP Labs in San Francisco to look hard at what’s ahead for transatlantic business.

Our keynote, Prof. Dr. Ulrike Malmendier (UC Berkeley Haas, German Council of Economic Experts, GABA Advisory Board), delivered a clear, unsentimental view of Germany’s economic challenges—from the €500B fiscal package to European integration and defense readiness—and what it will take to turn policy into real growth.

Expertly moderated by Dr. Kai Westerwelle (CMS Law, Chairman of the GABA Board), the panel offered sharp, sometimes conflicting perspectives from:

Prof. Mark Duggan, Stanford University
Axel Merk, President & CIO, Merk Investments
Yaad Oren, Managing Director, SAP Labs U.S. & GABA Board Member
Vanshree Verma, Director, Deutsche Bank Wealth Management

They tackled the questions business leaders are wrestling with right now:

➡ Can Germany convert record spending into sustainable competitiveness?
➡ How will tariffs, healthcare costs, and U.S. politics shape growth and capital flows in 2026?
➡ Is AI a bubble—or the next foundation of productivity and innovation?

For more great pictures of the event, please see our event photo album here.

Thank you to SAP Labs U.S. and Kathleen (Herzog) Murphy for hosting, Seebass Vineyards Family Winery for the outstanding wines, Monica May for capturing the evening on camera, and the German Consulate General San Francisco for their continued support.

As we head into 2026, one theme stood out: the strongest strategies emerge when decision-makers from both sides of the Atlantic discuss, exchange information and meet each other in the same room.
That’s GABA.